strange results monte carlo simulation

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mjan
Posts: 1
Joined: 26 Oct 2015 14:57

strange results monte carlo simulation

Post by mjan » 26 Oct 2015 15:01

I am performing a Monte Carlo simulation on an product system I made, however getting very strange results and cannot find out why.

Beforehand I calculated that the GWP using Recipe midpoint-H and the analysis function of openLCA, this number was around 77kgCO2 for the product system.

However when I run an Monte carlo simulation the mean is 5.121E4 with a standard deviation of 8.359E4. These numbers are not even close to the 77kgCO2. Does anybody know what I might have done wrong?

Thanks in advance!

Kind regards

aciroth
Posts: 750
Joined: 09 May 2010 23:28

Re: strange results monte carlo simulation

Post by aciroth » 27 Oct 2015 13:04

How many runs did you use, which database, with which uncertainty settings - a huge arithmetical mean can be obtained from some very high simulation results of course.
Thank you!

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